The Need To Look Beyond Today
We humans have this amazing tendency of seeing things superficially. We do not want to dig further, look into the depth of any situation. We are satisfied with the knowledge of the immediate future and conveniently turn a blind eye to issues beyond this immediate future.
Everyday, at least once during the day, the subject of recession is raised. The global scenario, the crisis in U.S, the effects on Europe, the impacts in Asia and so on. Everyday there is worry about lay offs, inflation, interest rates, liquidity…. The economy crumbling. There is a feeling of depression, anxiety and fear in the air over this recession everywhere, everyday.
But this is only the tip of the iceberg. There are so many other issues which are far more alarming but are unfortunately not creating anxiety or fear. These are issues which need immediate attention, but are ringing no panic bells. There is global warming and climate change, peak oil and peak coal and peak gas, population explosion and food shortage, extinction of various species and imbalance of ecosystems, and many more pressing issues. But unfortunately, these issues, these problems which have an impact of life and death on us and others who share this planet with us are not catching the eye of majority people.
Many studies indicate oil has already peaked. Others suggest oil will peak between 2007-2009. Most optimistic estimates talk of 2019. This information should be sounding some serious alarms. What peak oil simply means is being on the downward curve of the graph of crude extraction and oil production. This means, each year there will be lesser oil available for consumption than the previous year. Studies also reveal the efficiency of oil extraction is reducing in many oil fields, the energy consumed for extraction exorbitant. For example, if it took 1 bucket of oil to extract 100 buckets of crude, now 1 bucket extracts only 3 to 5 buckets of crude in many oil fields. Similarly, for new oil fields to be explored (profitably), the price of crude needs to be higher. All in all, the amount of crude available is now on the declining slope of the curve. This is a matter of great concern. Our entire life depends on this one commodity – Oil. From aeroplanes to cars to lipsticks to foam to many more things….. all come from crude! Till today, no such alternatives have been developed which can replace oil. The use of oil and its by products is so extensive and has penetrated into our lifestyles so deeply that it is almost impossible to replace. But if it is not replaced, that to fast, entire economies will collapse. The world, as it is today, will collapse. Be it solar, wind, fuel cells, electric or any other non-conventional form of energy, we need to replace oil with these on an immediate basis.
The urgency is no different when we think about population explosion and food shortage. The current population levels of over 6.7 billion are so high that there is an immense pressure on resources. The planet, given its finite land base and water supply, is not in a position to sustain the ever increasing population. As of today, millions of people are dying every year due to starvation and malnutrition. The land is being over exploited and productivity is decreasing. As the population increases this problem is only going to aggravate. We strongly need to work on population control on a priority basis.
But the problem which super cedes all others is that of global warming and climate change. Most climatologists are warning of serious changes in the climate within the present century. Studies reveal that we are already at dangerous levels of parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Most research suggests that we are over 1.7°C of warming. These studies also indicate that once we surpass 3°C rise in global temperature it will be too late to do anything about it. The earth was 2°C warmer over a million years ago. If temperatures rises at a rate of 0.3°C per decade, many plant and animal species will be driven to extinction on account of lack of adaptability. The ice caps are melting and the forests are depleting. This itself is a matter of great concern. But it does not end at that. This in turn leads to the kicking off of positive feedbacks – ocean carbon cycle feedbacks, soil carbon cycle feedbacks, permafrost. This in turn leads to converting the planets biggest carbon sinks – Arctic, Antarctic, Greenland icecaps and Amazon and other forests into the biggest carbon emitters leading to further global warming. This will lead to further melting of ice caps and more forest fires and higher desertification. It’s a vicious circle and there is no escaping it. Sea levels will be higher by meters within a few decades. All major cities ( New York, Bombay, London, etc. )- highly populated, commercial capitals are located on the coast. Desertification will reduce availability of arable land for cultivation which in turn will put more pressure on the already stiff food production. This in turn will lead to various diseases and epidemics. The economic stress and difficulty related to managing and coping with these issues will be unending and multiplying.
All these problems are inter-connected. We cannot live without burning fossil fuels, but we will not be able to live if we continue burning fossil fuels. We cannot live without food, but we will not be able to live if we don’t stop clearing forests for agriculture. We are seriously going to have to consider our options. We have made the foolish mistake of unleashing in less than 200 years the carbon nature took over 2 billion years to bury. Its time we understand and accept the enormity and gravity of our problems. Its time we ask some serious questions about our endless consumption. We can no longer turn a blind eye to what lies in store if we do not change. And we need to take serious and decisive steps toward addressing these urgent issues. Each one of us needs to take it upon ourselves to keep this planet sustainable, livable….. for us, our children and all other species. What we choose today is what we will face tomorrow.
Everyday, at least once during the day, the subject of recession is raised. The global scenario, the crisis in U.S, the effects on Europe, the impacts in Asia and so on. Everyday there is worry about lay offs, inflation, interest rates, liquidity…. The economy crumbling. There is a feeling of depression, anxiety and fear in the air over this recession everywhere, everyday.
But this is only the tip of the iceberg. There are so many other issues which are far more alarming but are unfortunately not creating anxiety or fear. These are issues which need immediate attention, but are ringing no panic bells. There is global warming and climate change, peak oil and peak coal and peak gas, population explosion and food shortage, extinction of various species and imbalance of ecosystems, and many more pressing issues. But unfortunately, these issues, these problems which have an impact of life and death on us and others who share this planet with us are not catching the eye of majority people.
Many studies indicate oil has already peaked. Others suggest oil will peak between 2007-2009. Most optimistic estimates talk of 2019. This information should be sounding some serious alarms. What peak oil simply means is being on the downward curve of the graph of crude extraction and oil production. This means, each year there will be lesser oil available for consumption than the previous year. Studies also reveal the efficiency of oil extraction is reducing in many oil fields, the energy consumed for extraction exorbitant. For example, if it took 1 bucket of oil to extract 100 buckets of crude, now 1 bucket extracts only 3 to 5 buckets of crude in many oil fields. Similarly, for new oil fields to be explored (profitably), the price of crude needs to be higher. All in all, the amount of crude available is now on the declining slope of the curve. This is a matter of great concern. Our entire life depends on this one commodity – Oil. From aeroplanes to cars to lipsticks to foam to many more things….. all come from crude! Till today, no such alternatives have been developed which can replace oil. The use of oil and its by products is so extensive and has penetrated into our lifestyles so deeply that it is almost impossible to replace. But if it is not replaced, that to fast, entire economies will collapse. The world, as it is today, will collapse. Be it solar, wind, fuel cells, electric or any other non-conventional form of energy, we need to replace oil with these on an immediate basis.
The urgency is no different when we think about population explosion and food shortage. The current population levels of over 6.7 billion are so high that there is an immense pressure on resources. The planet, given its finite land base and water supply, is not in a position to sustain the ever increasing population. As of today, millions of people are dying every year due to starvation and malnutrition. The land is being over exploited and productivity is decreasing. As the population increases this problem is only going to aggravate. We strongly need to work on population control on a priority basis.
But the problem which super cedes all others is that of global warming and climate change. Most climatologists are warning of serious changes in the climate within the present century. Studies reveal that we are already at dangerous levels of parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Most research suggests that we are over 1.7°C of warming. These studies also indicate that once we surpass 3°C rise in global temperature it will be too late to do anything about it. The earth was 2°C warmer over a million years ago. If temperatures rises at a rate of 0.3°C per decade, many plant and animal species will be driven to extinction on account of lack of adaptability. The ice caps are melting and the forests are depleting. This itself is a matter of great concern. But it does not end at that. This in turn leads to the kicking off of positive feedbacks – ocean carbon cycle feedbacks, soil carbon cycle feedbacks, permafrost. This in turn leads to converting the planets biggest carbon sinks – Arctic, Antarctic, Greenland icecaps and Amazon and other forests into the biggest carbon emitters leading to further global warming. This will lead to further melting of ice caps and more forest fires and higher desertification. It’s a vicious circle and there is no escaping it. Sea levels will be higher by meters within a few decades. All major cities ( New York, Bombay, London, etc. )- highly populated, commercial capitals are located on the coast. Desertification will reduce availability of arable land for cultivation which in turn will put more pressure on the already stiff food production. This in turn will lead to various diseases and epidemics. The economic stress and difficulty related to managing and coping with these issues will be unending and multiplying.
All these problems are inter-connected. We cannot live without burning fossil fuels, but we will not be able to live if we continue burning fossil fuels. We cannot live without food, but we will not be able to live if we don’t stop clearing forests for agriculture. We are seriously going to have to consider our options. We have made the foolish mistake of unleashing in less than 200 years the carbon nature took over 2 billion years to bury. Its time we understand and accept the enormity and gravity of our problems. Its time we ask some serious questions about our endless consumption. We can no longer turn a blind eye to what lies in store if we do not change. And we need to take serious and decisive steps toward addressing these urgent issues. Each one of us needs to take it upon ourselves to keep this planet sustainable, livable….. for us, our children and all other species. What we choose today is what we will face tomorrow.
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